Experts Predict: The Future of Iron Dome Against Iranian Missiles

Israel’s Iron Dome defense system has a 90 percent success rate, but militant groups and Iranian rockets have breached it. A new laser could change everything. These findings show that even if technical challenges could be overcome and the efficiency of U.S. National ballistic missile defense against faster long-range ballistic missiles matched the efficiency of the Israeli Iron Dome against shorter-range Iranian missiles and drones, the cost-exchange dynamics still heavily favor the attacker. There's a specific kind of math that could determine just how much longer the war can go — how many long-range missiles Iran has versus how many missile interceptors Israel has to shoot them down. For many years, Israel’s multilayered air defence system has repelled missile attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah. Two experts explain how Iranian missiles have broken through. Iran has fired hundreds of missiles in recent days, including the Fatah‑1, which Tehran claims can evade existing defences and fly at hypersonic speeds. Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned against relying only on interception. Israel’s missile defence systems (including the vaunted Iron Dome) have so far staved off most of Iran’s attacks, but the future is uncertain . Iran possesses a large arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israel’s launch of air attacks against Iran on Friday prompted Tehran to fire a wave of retaliatory strikes on Israel, and some Iranian ballistic missiles have pierced through Israel’s missile. Over the last eight days, Israel's much-acclaimed air defence system, the Iron Dome , has been tested like never before against multiple waves of Iranian missiles. As the conflict stretches. Israel's Iron Dome , a critical component of its air defense, has been lauded for protecting against short-range threats like rockets from Hamas. However, a massive Iranian missile and drone attack in June 2025 has sparked debate about its effectiveness. Israel’s air defense against Iran , explained Israeli officials this week reported an interception success rate of more than 90 percent.