Going forward, Iran could change the nature of the fight by employing more advanced weaponry or using cyberattacks, sabotage, terrorism, and proxy actions to pressure Israel without triggering direct U.S. The regime is unlikely to order the mining of sea lanes unless Israel severely disrupts Iranian oil installations. Iran is now refocusing its military efforts on Iraq and Yemen, strengthening ties with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq to bolster its influence ahead of the 2025 elections, sway electoral outcomes, and maintain regional dominance. Iran - backed Iraqi PMF, Yemen’s Houthis, and Shia militia across the Middle East and South Asia have joined core axis members Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime in the belief that they are separate but allied flanks in a united front against shared enemies. Forty-six years after the Islamic Revolution, Iranian public sentiment has turned sharply against the ruling elite. A 2022 survey by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran GAMAAN found that nearly 90% of Iranians do not support the Islamic Republic as a system of governance. Militant groups backed by Iran , which supports Hamas and for years has engaged in a shadow war with Israel, have joined in. These groups — part of Iran ’s so-called axis of resistance — have. This knowledge gap has produced significant policy consequences, enabling Iran ’ s leaders to use such militias to target governments in the region and attack Western positions – and with enough plausible deniability to prevent an international response. The Islamic Republic of Iran , long reliant on a network of proxy groups to exert influence across the Middle East, faces significant challenges as its strategy falters. Iran ’ s National Defense Strategy is a multifaceted approach, shaped by the country’s unique geopolitical circumstances and its historical military experiences. This strategy reflects Tehran’s aim to safeguard its territorial integrity while navigating a complex regional landscape marked by instability and external pressures. As President Donald Trump floats “regime change ” in Tehran, previous U.S. Attempts to remake the Middle East by force in recent decades can offer stark warnings about the possibility of a deepening involvement in the Iran -Israeli conflict. The escalating tensions, which have now manifested in direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel, are poised to send seismic shockwaves through the global economy.
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