Tensions between two Middle Eastern heavyweights have erupted into a full-fledged Israel ‑ Iran war 2025. What’s happening now? In the latest twist, Israel ’s Operation Rising Lion unleashed a devastating wave of airstrikes on Iran ’s military and nuclear infrastructure—including the hardened Natanz enrichment complex—on June 13, 2025. We know as well that Iran will respond militarily to Israel’s strikes, notwithstanding the diminishment of its proxies and the likely disruption of key elements of its command-and-control mechanisms. Iran typically prefers to wait to retaliate at the time and place of its choosing. After prevaricating about whether the United States would enter Israel ’s war on Iran , President Donald Trump finally made a decision. Early Sunday, US warplanes and submarines struck three of. Key insight: Iran’s need to retaliate + Israel’s opportunity for decisive action = extended combat. Warning: Iran’s short breakout time (~ 25 days ) could force strategic miscalculation or preemptive strikes. Iran ’s response to Israel ’s unprecedented military offensive has been constrained, reactive and shaped by a growing sense of vulnerability. While it has launched retaliatory strikes, these have been more limited in intensity and scope than many would have anticipated, given Tehran’s massive stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones. Iran has retaliated by launching hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel , some of which have penetrated Israel’s vaunted aerial defence system, killing two dozen people so far. Iran has labelled the attacks a declaration of war , and has responded with its own missile salvoes in recent days, with the civilian populations of both nations bearing the brunt of the conflict.
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