Iran ’ s Great Ballistic Missile Attack Gamble The October 1 attack by Iran is its largest gamble yet. It knows Israel is primed to respond. It knows that Israel has backing from the West. It also knows Israel significantly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, removing two of the Iranian-backed fronts against Israel. As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile program offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses, AP’s Jon Gambrell explains. Israel ’s attack on Iran has exposed critical weaknesses in Tehran’s broader military strategy. While Iran still has untapped shorter-range capabilities it could deploy in its immediate neighbourhood, its depleted medium-range missile arsenal and weakened regional allies leave it with limited options for retaliation against Israel . Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the missile attack against Israel , which it described as retaliation for the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, and other IRGC leaders. Israel views the combination of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile reportedly exceeding 20 times the JCPOA limit and its missile arsenal as a narrowing window for preventive action. Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% purity, according to IAEA reports—just shy of weapons-grade (90%). Even as Israel has pummeled Iran with its own sophisticated missiles , setting oil facilities in Tehran ablaze, it still fears Iran’s capacity for fierce retaliation. The same principle applies to Israel 's decision to attack Iran . Its war is a gamble - to pay off, it must be entirely successful. It cannot afford to miss.
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