In a post–October 7th world, Israel believes that an Iranian bomb poses an existential risk to Israeli security. Thanks to war in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel has dealt significant blows to Iran 's proxy network, particularly Hezbollah. Moreover, back in October, Israel had already taken out some of Iran 's air defense. Hamas began this war on October 7, 2023, and embroiled Iran and its proxy and partner militias in a two-year conflict that badly undermined Iran’s ability to deter Israel and set the stage for the ongoing Israeli air campaign. Since 1985, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a proxy conflict that has greatly affected the geopolitics of the Middle East. In 2025, hostility between Israel and Iran escalated into an armed military conflict. Assaf Orion A major shift has occurred at the strategic level now that Iran is directly at war with Israel after historically preferring to fight by proxy . The regime’s three pillars of offensive power—nuclear, missile, and proxy capabilities—are all being challenged, while the country’s defenses and deterrence are being heavily undermined. What was once a covert conflict waged through proxy groups, cyberattacks, and intelligence operations now threatens to become a full-scale state-to-state war . Understanding the factors behind this transformation—and its implications for regional stability—is more urgent than ever. Israel recognized a golden opportunity to seize Iranian weakness, following the collapse of is proxy “Axis of Resistance” led by Hezbollah along with Israel ’s operational achievements of its October 2024 attack on Iran , when Israel destroyed Tehran’s strategic air defense system. The fact that the path to Iran was open to the Israeli Air Force was a significant factor in the decision. The vast imbalance in military power and intelligence capabilities heavily favors Israel over Iran . The Islamic Republic’s most advanced air defense systems (the Russian S-300s) were destroyed in earlier Israeli strikes.
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