Hezbollah is trapped: intervene and face annihilation by Israel — stay silent and risk losing Iran, its patron, protector, and reason for existing. Since last Friday night, Israel has launched relentless strikes at the heart of Iran’s military infrastructure. Did the Obama administration really impede a DEA probe into Hezbollah ’ s billion-dollar narcotics trafficking so as to not antagonize Iran during the secret negotiations? 17, almost a year into an escalating conflict with Israel, militants in the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah heard an urgent ringtone call out from their model AR-924 pagers. While Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran is opaque , it is safe to assume that the ceasefire was linked to an Iranian decision to spare Hezbollah’s remaining forces from Israel’s relentless attacks, with a view to replenishing and rebuilding their capacities. Hezbollah ’ s connection to Iran has remained essential since the Lebanese civil war (1975-89) but has evolved since the 2010s because of the party’s growing significance in Lebanon and on the regional political scenes. Hezbollah ’ s activities, from its involvement in the Syrian civil war to clashes with Israel, can inadvertently draw Iran into larger regional skirmishes. Further, an over-reliance on proxies can lead to unpredictability. Tehran is unlikely to order Hezbollah, in its current battered state, to enter the fray unless Iran feels its regime is in existential danger. So far, Hezbollah has sufficed with tame condemnations of the Israeli strikes—unusual for the typically verbally bellicose group.
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